ADP Provides Better Numbers Than Expected
June has proven to be a good month for the ADP employment survey because many unexpected favorable increases were reported by this Automatic Data Processing survey.
The survey has reported that the private sector has registered an increase of employment by 157,000 which is more than double in comparison with the expected number of 60,000. This is quite a speed up in comparison with May when only 36,000 new jobs were created. The news will become even more exciting if tomorrow, the expected BLS non-farm payroll report will deliver the same news. Unfortunately, these reports don’t always deliver the same numbers and many are always disappointed, but, in the same time, many have high expectations about the numbers BLS will reveal on Friday. Let’s hope that it won’t be like in January when while ADS reported that 187,000 new jobs had been created, the BLS report confirmed that only 50,000 of those jobs were actually available (a revision showed that the actual number was of 68,000 jobs newly created, but the difference is still significant).
The increase in June is the result of the contribution of small, medium and large business. The small business managed to reach the number of 88,000 jobs while the medium firms and the large ones added together a number of 69,000 jobs. To be able to appreciate the increase we can also consider every field separately. For example, in the goods producing sector about 27,000 jobs became available in June. In the construction industry 4,000 jobs
were added and is expected that the situation will improve even more in the second half of 2011 or in 2012 when it’s expected a higher demand for housing. The manufacturing sector was also the subject of an increase because 24,000 jobs were added in May compensating for the 9,000 that were lost in May. Many consider that the May problem was mostly caused by the Japanese disaster that affected supplies especially in the case of the auto industry. Last, but not least, the service sector is also proud of its 90,843 jobs gained. Most of these private sector jobs are offered by small service firms.
But even if BLS announces tomorrow a number of 100,000 jobs newly created in the private sector, the number is still low especially considering that the country is about to leave behind a deep recession. These numbers aren’t going to solve the unemployment problems and even if they are better than the ones in recent months, they aren’t as good as those registered at the beginning of the year. What can we do more than hope? Maybe the ones who have the authority have made good decisions which are stimulating the economy.11