Kim Jong-il Visits China In Attempt To Ensure Presidential Succession

The North Korean dictator Kim Jong-il traveled to China today, in a second trip in four months to China, to visit a school attended by his father, in an attempt to solidify his plans for succession.

The visit was confirmed by South Korean officials and by Chinese residents of the visited area who were aware of Jong-il’s presence, and it is considered a strategic one, since within two weeks a major gathering is expected in North Korea, occasion on which Kim Jong-il is expected to announce his successor, his third son, Kim Jong-eun, who is considered the one to take over as the next supreme leader. The South Korean media even reports, without possibility of confirmation, that  Kim Jong-eun accompanied his parents in the trip to China.

It seems like Kim Jong-il left the country without meeting Jimmy Carter, the American president who came to Pyongyang to retrieve an American teacher arrived to North Korea in January. This thing means that that the legitimacy of the succession is the top priority for the leadership of the Communist regime.

Some analysts say that at the meeting of the North Korea’s Workers Party, expected to be held the next month, the first since 1966, it is possible that the representatives may vote for a renewal of the leadership, in which case the appointment of Kim Jong-eun could not hold water. That is why analysts think Kim Jong-il is traveling to China in an attempt to appeal to the Kim Il-sung mythology to increase the legitimacy of his son.

Kim Jong-eun has never been seen in public before in North Korea, and the way his father is handling the economy has decreased the support of the people for their regime, thus making his chance for succession a little slimmer.

The President of North Korea visited Yuwen Middle School in Jilin at 155 miles from the North Korean border. The Jilin residents who reported this visit didn’t know if the son was with him (probably because they didn’t even recognize him).

It is said that by this the president is trying to remind the people of North Korea about the importance of his father Kim Il-sung, who founded the North Korean Republic and led it for 46 years (in a dictator manner, which seems to go beyond his grave, if we look at this incredible picture with people bowing before an immense statue of bronze; it is said that they even have a satellite that broadcasts patriotic songs dedicated to him). By reminding the people of the “eternal president” Kim Jong-il may be trying to build support for the next generation of Kim family.

Kim Il-sung attended the school of Jilin in 1925, and it is said that it was there that he learnt Communist ideology. In the North Korean education system this episode is taught as part of the mythology which presents Kim as the liberator from the Japanese colonial rule and founder of the Communist republic.

China didn’t comment on the presidential visit, as they hadn’t done it during the previous visits, until he was back in North Korea. Thus, it is not known whether Kim Jong-il is going to visit any other places in China.

China is the most important ideological and economic ally, and although it seems like it is quite unhappy with the Kim regime it is likely that it would prefer a peaceful transition without tension at the Chinese border. Still, in spite of these considerations, it is not sure what role is China playing in the succession in Pyongyang.

Although China is the most important partner of North Korea, the leader in Pyongyang has only been here six times. It is well known that Kim Jong-il is afraid to travel by plane, which is why he is traveling by train or by car. His train is monitored by satellite by the South Koreans and the Americans. This is how the South Koreans knew first about the visit.

It is also possible that Kim Jong-il’s visit may be seen as a sign that the Communist leader wants another economic approach on his relation to China, an open behavior which would replace the actual policy that is leading a lot of people in North Korea to starvation and extreme poverty.

The state media showed pictures of Jimmy Carter with Kim Young-nam, the nominal no 2 in the country. In August 2009, Kim Jong-il met with Bill Clinton, who was in a mission of retrieval of the American journalist Laura Ling. Then, Clinton brought the journalist home, and made a lot of pictures with the Communist president.