Russia May Sign Arms Deal With NATO After Summit

The NATO Summit scheduled to happen by the end of this week is expected to deal with two very important matters: the volatile situation in Afghanistan and the relation with Russia.

Both topics seem to take advantage of a relatively favorable tide, since the United States is about to present the Western allies with an pullout plan from Afghanistan that is supposed to meet the expectancy of the population in these countries which are demanding more and more seriously an end to the war that has been going on for almost a decade.

Even though the plan to withdraw from Afghanistan until 2014 does not mean precisely that the last combat soldier will be out of this country by then, but only that most of them will, the plan the Obama Administration puts on the table could create the premises for an understanding on this difficult issue, since most of the NATO allies are convinced that they have no more business in Afghanistan.

The relations with Russia on the other hand seem to be improving more and more as China is becoming the heir apparent of world leadership and starts acting like so, and the other partner of the troika that not so long ago contained Russia, China and India is being dubbed by the president of the United States as a “rising power.”

Under the circumstances, at a meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Russian leader Dmitry Medvedev announced that he would attend the summit in Lisbon, by mid-November.

Furthermore, it is possible that Medvedev comes to the summit with an agenda of his own, where topics like the anti-missile shield or the admission of Georgia and Ukraine will hold a prominent place.

Going into specifics, Dmitry Rogozin, Russia’s envoy to NATO, said that his country may soon sign an agreement with NATO’s procurement agency to the purpose of trading arms.

This accord is seen as a means to improve relations between former adversaries.

Rogozin said that after the meetings of the president with NATO officials, on November 19-20, an accord could be signed with NATO Maintenance and Supply Agency. At the same time, Russian state-owned companies are also in negotiations with NATO.

Rogozin wanted to state that with an enemy one can trade grain, but not weapons, alluding to the fact that this is a sign of thawing the relations between the two military blocks.

Relations between NATO and Russia have been strained especially after the expansion of the military alliance to the Eastern Europe, a territory considered by Russia as a “proximate vicinity,” and an expansion considered a direct threat to its borders.

Another reason for flareups was the war in Georgia, when Russia practically separated two breakaway territories from Georgia, which had been a candidate for the admission to NATO along with Ukraine and Macedonia.

All three of them were rejected at the summit in Bucharest in April 2008, Georgia and Ukraine for fear of antagonizing Russia, and Macedonia as a result of a name dispute with Greece, which is a member of the treaty.

In the light of this new attitude, it is expected that Russia and NATO will adopt joint positions on various concerns, such as Afghanistan situation, terrorism, nuclear non-proliferation, fighting piracy at sea, protecting infrastructure against natural catastrophes.

Rogozin considers that Russia still sees NATO as “unpredictable” because it has to make decision based on the shifting interests of its components. In keeping with metaphors, Rogozin said NATO is “a rhino with poor sight.”

This week, U.S. Senator Jon Kyl said that he didn’t think a voting on the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty could be passed this year, in spite of the assurances Obama gave the Russian counterpart on November 14 that the treaty would be signed by the end of 2010.

Rogozin maintained that the treaty is in the best interest of all parties involved.

On the same topic of the nuclear presence in Europe, it is expected of Medvedev to come with a proposition to create a joint anti-missile shield with Russian involvement.

In fact, he hinted to that as he was meeting the French and German leaders, saying that if Iran is the enemy of Europe against which the shield is being deployed why not build an Europe-Russia shield.

Anyway, the proposition of Bush Administration to build such shield in Poland and Czech Republic seems to be toned down by Obama Administration, who said it was going to hear other proposals, and the Russians could get involved in it.

If Medvedev puts such a proposition on the table, it is expected that the reactions to it may tension a little bit the existing positive attitude.

The tension could rise a little higher if Fogh Rasmussen goes on to affirm that Georgia and Ukraine may be admitted to NATO as soon as they meet required criteria.

Rogozin explains using the same metaphoric way that Georgia and Ukraine will never be members of NATO. “Many wish to marry Claudia Shiffer,” he says (employing an obsolete example in the business of cinema stars, since no one expressedly wants to marry Claudia Shiffer these days), “and the same is with Georgia and Ukraine” (in the sense that they wish to “marry” NATO, not Schiffer, of course).

It is true that Russia has managed to “settle” the Georgian problem, as the two breakaway territories are on the verge of asking to become members of the Federation, which would make NATO presence in the rest of the country very difficult.

Ukraine has become more friendly to Russia especially after the elections at the beginning of the year, when the pro-Western coalition lost in favor of a pro-Russian party which has brought Ukraine very deep into the Russian influence zone.

Under the current circumstances, if Georgia may stand a chance to have a life of its own without Russia in it too much, Ukraine is on a course that will bring it in the impossibility of letting go. That is probably the meaning of Rogozin’s comparison.

Another matter that concerns both parties, the Russia and NATO, is related to Russian involvement in the conflict of Afghanistan and its “side effect,” the Russian stance on the weapon market.

Russia has promised to make a contribution to the war effort in Iraq. In fact talks are under way to ensure the delivery of 20 Mi-17 Russian helicopters.

Another contribution is to allow NATO troops coming out of Afghanistan to ship non-lethal cargoes back to their homeland through the Russian territory.

The deal that allows Russia to treat directly with NATO problems related to weapon market shows a repositioning of Russia on the market, by acquiring one of the most legitimate and powerful customers in the world.

This comes at a time when Russian arms dealing operations received a blow as a result of the extradition of Viktor Bout to the U.S.A. two days ago.