The Chinese Yuan Stirs Up The Spirits Once Again
For U.S. President Barack Obama, the matter has long been clear: The price of the Chinese currency is kept artificially low, the Beijing leadership to keep the export economy competitive. Main victim of the U.S., whose trade with China is deficit-ridden. At least 20 percent of the Yuan is undervalued, as Obama repeatedly stressed, most recently at the G-20 meeting in Seoul, South Korea. He is assisted enhance the possibility of other countries such as Japan or South Korea, whose currencies are also undervalued.
In fact, the Chinese currency more expensive in the opinion of Tom Berse, foreign exchange analyst at FX Direct Bank, only if the conditions were given a free and fair review. This applies to the relationship with the U.S. dollar and the euro. It remains to be seen how long China can resist pressure from the G-8 countries, continues Berse, but he does not believe a complete change of floating of the Yuan next year. While the U.S. dollar, therefore, has weakened in line with the Americans against the euro, with fluctuations, this has been done in relation to the Yuan much less.
Regardless, the currency pair dollar / Yuan over the next year, losing in the opinion of Klaus Schrüfer of the SEB Bank in force, since China will not allow his opinion, a prudent appreciation of its currency. The aim of the Chinese it is so Schrüfer further modified to reduce the increase in inflation pressure and to participate through a strengthening of private consumption, the population on the continuing strong growth.
For a more cautious approach of the Chinese speaks the homeopathic interest rate policy, which according to many experts, however, is not sufficient. In October, the Chinese central bank had increased by 0.25 percent to 5.56 percent. Market watchers expect the recent high export surplus in November next steps.
The yen on the rise
The central question for the Japanese yen in the coming year will be whether the appreciation can be stopped, especially against the dollar but to a lesser extent against the euro. Because of the high exchange rate currently charged by just under 84 yen to the dollar in the opinion of Eberhard Unger, chief economist at Fairesearch, increasingly the Japanese export sector and thus acts as an impediment. However, the FX Direct Bank pointed out that the course of the yen in the year of real economic development is somewhat ahead run, which argues at least for stabilization.
In another aspect, the IMF points out, namely the fact it will be worth no more carry trades with the alignment of interest rate differentials between Japan and the USA for some time. The dollar positions are resolved and additional burden on the U.S. currency, without the intervention of government or central bank that could. Only a rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve could stop by Ungers think this trend and make the carry trade more attractive. After such a rate hike in 2011 but it does not. This reduces the chances of the yen, the appreciation spiral in the coming year to escape.11